Giving Thanks 2007

It has been an up-and-down year for sports here in the J-Borhood. My favorite teams have run the gamut from atrocious (Chicago Bulls) to staggeringly amazing (Hawaii Warriors). In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I wanted to momentarily forget the disappointments (*cough*, Rex Grossman) and share all the things in sports, for which I’m thankful this year.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

In 2007 I am thankful for…Beer

Whether watching Sunday Morning football with a Sam Adams for breakfast (oh, don’t act like I’m the only one!) or enjoying an Coors Light in the stadium parking lot before the game, nothing pairs as eloquently with watching sport as ice cold beer. Celebrating a win? Victory beer! Wallowing in defeat? Drown your sorrows. Regardless of the situation, beer provides the perfect complement to sports viewing of all kinds.

Now, I know what you’re thinking. Beer may be the perfect sidekick to watching sports, but what does beer get out of the relationship? Is beer the Robin to sports’ Batman?

Never fear, J-Bors. Beer and sports form a perfectly symbiotic relationship. Beer adds an elegant accessory to any sporting event, but sports provides the single best excuse (with boating coming in at a close second) to be lazy and drink a six-pack. What other activities provide you an opportunity to sit around, do nothing for a few hours, drink beer and still call it a productive day?

(With that in mind, I plan on having a very “productive” Thanksgiving!)

(Side note: I wish I did not have to add this follow-up, but I would like to state, for the record, that the J-Borhood does not condone out of control drinking behavior. Drunken behavior, like the kind that occurred at Aloha Stadium during the Fresno State game is wildly inappropriate. So, by all means, drink up and have a good time. Just don’t act like an asshole.)

In 2007, I am thankful for…My wife’s commitment to sports

Five years ago, the Editor-in-Chief didn’t know the difference between a Tight End and timeout. Last week, I came home and she told me about Barry Bonds recent indictment, which she learned from watching Sportscenter. She still has trouble counting balls and strikes (probably because she has problems counting…) and she can’t explain the difference between a Cover-2 and a Cover-3 defense (who am I kidding? I can’t tell the difference between a Cover-2 and a Cover-3), but she can follow a game, knows when to cheer and has taken to the drinking beer aspect of sports like Elvis to a peanut butter and banana sandwich.

In 2007, I am thankful for…Dan Kelly

Before the season started, if you asked me for a list of the pivotal players on the Hawaii Warriors football team, Dan Kelly wouldn’t have made the Top 10. Hell, he wouldn’t have made the top 25. Yet, through the ten games of the season, he has been arguably the most important not named Colt Brennan. So far this year, Dan Kelly has nailed two 45+ yard field goals, with the game on the line. Three, if you want to count the first field goal in the Nevada game that was negated by a timeout. Hopefully, the Warriors won’t need any more late game heroics, but if they do, I’ll be thankful to have Kelly lining up to take the kick.

In 2007, I am thankful for…Devin Hester

Without Devin Hester, the 2007 Chicago Bears would be virtually unwatchable. The offensive line can’t block, the running backs can’t run, the wide receivers can’t catch and the defense looks sadly mediocre. At least with Hester in the game, I know that every time opponent scores I’ll be treated to another look at history in the making.

In 2007, I am thankful for…watching sports with my Dad

When I was born, my father bestowed my sacred birth right upon me: the right to suffer the yearly pain of following Chicago sports. Not only do I get to watch the bungle the Bears continue to insist is football, I get to suffer through the continual agony of the Cubs discovering inventive new ways to lose. (I would appreciate it if you gloss over the fact that this is all karmic justice for the six titles in eight years during the stretch run of the Michael Jordan era.) Yet, even though I’m forced to suffer this annual agony, I get to share it all with my Dad, whom I can always count on to add brevity to any loss, no matter how painful. Whether it’s his love of wild African names – he just about popped a bottle of Dom when the Bears signed Adawale Ogunleye, insistence of hilarious nicknames – like referring to Jeremy Burnitz as “Mr. Baggy Pants”, throughout his Cubs tenure), or his inability to shake off a painful loss, even after a few weeks, helps dull the nagging ache of Chicago sports fandom and allow me to love it for what it is: the best ongoing tragicomedy in the northern hemisphere.

Thanks, Dad!

In 2007, I am thankful for…Colt Brennan

Colt Brennan has provided more than a 10-0 record; More than an opportunity to watch a potential Heisman winner rewrite the NCAA records books; More than a sense of relevance to the University of Hawaii football team; More than an undefeated road schedule for the first time in the programs history; More than the opportunity to beat Boise State, win an outright share of the WAC title and go to a BCS game. Colt Brennan has provided a sense of unity to both the football team and the community, the likes of which, this town has never seen. It started with his tearful press conference when he announced that he would stay for his senior season in part because “he liked the person he was becoming in Hawaii,” and continued with his humble, team centric comments after each successive victory. He has handled success and the adversity of the college football schedule with poise, humility, and grace; and created an unprecedented following of the UH football program.

It’s no longer the UH Football team. It’s our UH Football team and he’s our quarterback.

In 2007, I am thankful for…the Cubs making the playoffs

After the Cubs fell five outs short of the World Series in 2003, I consoled myself in the fact that they’d be back next year. But next year, turned into the year after that, which turned into the year after that, at which point I fully regressed into the “wait until next year” Cubs fan mentality. It got so bad that I refused to have any faith in the team, even when they surged back into the division lead with the best record in baseball the month after the All-Star game. In fact, me and my Dad collectively gave up on the Cubs no fewer then 10 separate times this season. We expected them to blow every close game and just about threw in the towel when they got swept by the Marlins at the end of the season. But, miraculously, this team bucked with tradition, won close games, came from behind to win and refused to give up their small division lead late in the season. Sure, it was painful to watch them play typical Cubs baseball in a brutal sweep at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team with an average age that prevents them from buying alcohol, but I’ll take that kind of pain any day. So bring on the Bartmans, bring on the Billy Goat and, most importantly, bring on the playoffs baby. Next year is HERE!

(Note: Expect to hear from me next year proclaiming that I’m thankful that basketball season is here to wash away the pain of another year without the Cubs in the playoffs.)

In 2007 I am thankful for…cable TV

Prior to my last birthday, I did not have television. I had a television, but only so I could watch DVDs and play video games; I did not receive any television stations. No tivo. No HD. No digital cable. Nothing. And I liked it that way. I recorded the programs I wanted to watch on my in-laws DVR, watched all the sports I wanted with my Dad and never fell victim to midweek MAC football games or re-runs of Dog the Bounty Hunter on A&E.

That all changed when my in-laws, taking pity on me, or perhaps just in an attempt to reduce the amount of time I spent sprawled on their couch watching Saturday morning football, bought me basic cable for my birthday. The cable package consists of the network stations, TBS, TNT, A&E, Comedy Central, VS, Spike, ESPN News and a blurry, pirated version of ESPN. Yet, through this smattering of misfit channels, I’m able to catch up on all the college football, college basketball, Major League baseball and, most importantly, NBA games that I’d sorely missed.

You see, it’s easy to follow baseball through box scores and recaps. In fact, I almost prefer listening to baseball on the radio to watching it on TV. Football doesn’t translate quite as well, but it only happens once a week, so it’s easy to catch up. But basketball, with an 82 game season, games every day and a frenetic, fluid, high-paced intensity is IMPOSSIBLE to follow without actually watching games. I realized this when I tried to write an NBA preview article and found out that I only knew the following things about the NBA:

• The Spurs won the NBA title and have Tim Duncan
• The Suns lost to the Spurs due to controversial ejections
• A referee bet on basketball games
• LeBron James is really, really good
• The Bulls have a decent young team, but lack a superstar, athletic guards and low-post scoring
  

And that’s not even enough to squeeze out a 1500 word sports column. Now, I’m able to watch the late night TNT and ESPN games when I come home from work and get to see first hand that the Bulls have a not-so-decent young team that lacks a superstar, athletic guards and low-post scoring. Oh well, at least the Dog re-runs are entertaining…

In 2007, I am thankful for…Kevin McHale

For trading one of the top 30 greatest NBA players ever (Kevin Garnett) for a slightly above average player (Al Jefferson), decent role player (Ryan Gomes, I mean, who? no seriously, who is this?) and a future draft pick, thereby reminding me that I’m overqualified to be an NBA general manager.

In 2007, I am thankful for…Steve Phillips

For suggesting that all the Dodgers need to do in the offseason was sign the best free agent outfielder available (Torii Hunter) and the best player of our generation (Alex Rodriguez) in addition to trading for the best pitcher in baseball (Johan Santan), thereby reminding me that, not only am I overqualified to serve as a NBA general manager, but I’m overqualified to be a baseball commentator for ESPN.

In 2007, I am thankful for…Joe Buck

For saying that the Detroit Lions think they can use wide receiver Calvin Johnson, a 6’ 5” freak of nature who runs the 40 yard dash in under 4.3 seconds wearing someone else’s shoes, to “exploit some matchups”, thereby reminding me that, not only am I overqualified to serve as a NBA general manager and ESPN baseball commentator, but I’m overqualified to be a color commentator for NFL games.

In 2007, I am thankful for…the J-Borhood faithful

I love the comments, love the emails and appreciate all the feedback. Right now, we’re at 30-50 page views a week, with two email subscribers and counting. Thanks for sticking with me.

Have a happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

A Proper Perspective

Last Saturday, as Colt Brennan lay motionless on the Aloha Stadium turf, the 40,000 fans attending the University of Hawaii vs. Fresno State football game and the millions watching on television were reminded of a valuable lesson:

There are things in life more important then sports.

Things like the ability to walk. Friendship. Community. The health and well being of our families. Because at this point, let’s face it, this group of Hawaii Warriors is no longer just a football team, they’re family. When Colt Brennan hit the deck, it might as well have been your brother or sister laying on the ground. In that moment, all thoughts of an undefeated season or a BCS game slipped under the rushing tide of concern for a member of our ohana. (For those J-Bors unfamiliar with the parlance of my Hawaiian home, the Hawaiian word of the day is Ohana, which means family. The Hawaiian word of the day is brought to you by sunshine, palm trees and, of course, the letter J.)

After the game ended, the players did not celebrate the hard fought victory over their bitter rivals, nor did they perform their customary post game Ha’a. Similarly, the fans did not stick around Aloha Stadium to cheer the teams record tying ninth victory in a row. Instead, the players rushed to the locker room and the fans filed out of the stadium in an eerie silence, got in their cars and turned on their radios to hear if Colt was ok. The game did not matter. Colt mattered.

Unfortunately, this moment of solidarity was marred the next day when a report of abusive fan behavior surfaced. A Fresno State fan, who had traveled to Hawaii to watch the game, posted a scathing indictment of the Hawaii fans and Aloha Stadium security on a national College Football message board. Entitled “Aloha Stadium: A Disaster Waiting to Happen”, the post details how “fights, alcohol, lax security and thug fans have turned Aloha Stadium into what is likely the most horrible game day atmosphere in college football”. (You can read the full text of the post here.)

According to the writer, a group of out of control, violent, intoxicated Hawaii fans continually antagonized the Fresno State fans sitting in the visitors section in the North End Zone section of Aloha Stadium. The aggressors threw water bottles and full beers into the section, spit on the Fresno fans, continually yelled obscenities and, finally, descended into the Fresno section and began throwing punches. When the Fresno fans attempted to call security, it took the police officers more then 7 minutes to respond. When they finally arrived, they escorted out a 65 year old Fresno State fan who had been the victim of spitting and punching and had not been involved in the fight in any way. Did I mention that all this occurred in the first quarter????

The writer goes on to describe similarly shocking events that occurred throughout the duration of the game. Most of them involve profanity, violence and a slow, ineffective police force. I won’t subject you to the painful details, except to pass along my personal favorite. As a Fresno State fan was in line for beer a Hawaii fan screamed, “Hey David Carr was at Fresno State…. he’s a fucking piece of shit. The Bulldogs can suck my cock.” You stay classy, Honolulu.

For those of you sitting at home, watching college football, sharing an orange with your dog thinking “Hey, why isn’t the J-Borhood funny this week?” (Really? I’m the only one?), I apologize. I do my best to ensure that the J-Borhood remains diatribe free. I’ll freely engage in a rant, harangue, tirade, discourse or invective, but I want to completely sidestep any moral arbitration. In other words, papa don’t preach. But in light of Colt Brennan’s serious injury and with Thanksgiving on the horizon, I want to take the opportunity to make my position on sports inescapably clear.

Sports are a recreation. Good, mostly-clean fun. And while it’s ok to take them too seriously (Oh, come on. Shaving my head, bleaching it blonde and they dyeing the Hawaiian islands in the side isn’t TOO serious, is it?), it’s not ok to lose sight of what really matters in life.

Health. Friendship. Camaraderie. Pride. Family. Humor.

So go out there and get crazy. Dye your hair, shave your chest, paint your body, name your children after your sports heroes, paint your house your favorite team’s colors, wear giant foam fingers, cheer with all your heart and soul and even taunt the opposing fans. Just make sure you do it with the same style, class and verve that we practice here on the J-Borhood week in, week out.

Most importantly, when you see that crazy drunk Hawaii fan w/ a shaved head, bleached blonde hair and the Hawaiian islands on the side of his head, raving like a lunatic and screaming obscenities at Boise State players this Friday, just remember to do as I say, not as I do.

(Just kidding, Mom!)

Inaugural J-Borhood Mixed Plate

In a normal week, I come up with five to ten ideas before ultimately deciding which one to explore in-depth for the weekly J-Borhood feature. Most of these ideas lack the depth to satisfy the cultured, worldly appetites of the J-Borhood faithful and thus, never see the light of day. In order to give these ideas their ten minutes of fame, I’d like to introduce a new feature on the J-Borhood…

THE MIXED PLATE!

Approximately once every blue moon (translation: whenever I’m too lazy to write a feature length article), we’ll kick off our shoes, let our hair down and enjoy a sampling of the muddled musings that meander through my mind.

No depth. No culture. Just bite sized samples to satiate the soul. Think of it as toilet reading for the mercurial sports fan.

Enjoy!

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Why are the Patriots so good? Because of June Jones of course…

I learned a lot of things in the aftermath of the Patriots victory over the Colts:

• No other team in the NFL has the talent to compete against the Colts and the Patriots
• Randy Moss is the best receiver in the NFL
• Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are human, but only if you pressure them. If you can’t generate consistent pressure, turn of the lights, the party’s over. (It was not a fluke that Brady struggled in the first half when Freeney and Mathis put a clinic on the Patriots offensive line; nor was it a fluke that Manning struggled in the fourth quarter when Belicheck’s varied blitz package confused the Colts front five.)
• Bill Belicheck learned offensive football from June Jones
  

That’s right. The best coach in modern football learned his offense from the coach of the Hawaii Warriors.

Back when June Jones was the coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Bill Belicheck invited the Falcons to practice his Cleveland Browns for two weeks before the season started every year. The reason? “Because he couldn't stop us, and he kind of always wanted to know and watch how we did things,” said Jones.

If you didn’t believe June Jones was an amazing football coach yet, believe it now.

Check out the full story here: UH's Jones says Pat's offense looks Warrior-like

Steve Phillips is a moron

Granted, this isn’t exactly news. I’m not going out on limb when I claim that the general manager who gave up two of the top five young players in baseball (Jose Reyes and David Wright) for a crapulous Jose Cruz Jr. and grandfatherly Roberto Alomar and swapped Scott Kazmir for Victor “my best pitch is a meatball” Zambrano is a fool. It’s like saying that Isaiah Thomas is a mediocre GM, George W. Bush is a subpar orator, or Custer was a poor general. But, this Tuesday on Sportscenter, his idiocy reached new heights. When asked about how the Dodgers, who have needs at third base, center field and starting pitcher, should rebuild their team in the offseason, Phillips gave these suggestions:

• Sign Alex Rodriguez or trade for Miguel Cabrera to play third base
• Move Juan Pierre to left field and sign Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter for center field
• Trade for Johan Santana
  

So, let me get this right, Steve. In order to improve, the Dodgers should sign one of the top two centerfielders in the game, either the greatest player in history or the best young hitter in a generation and acquire the best pitcher in baseball? Really? While they’re at it, why don’t they trade the Red Sox for Josh Beckett, the Cardinals for Albert Pujols and cryogenically unfreeze Ted Williams and stick him in right field?

I think my IQ dropped ten points by the time he finished talking. On the bright side, I realized that I’m overqualified to be a baseball analyst for ESPN.

Soul Vibration rocks my world

Check out the best band you’ve never heard of. I’ll let them explain themselves in their own words:

“We don't play emo, we don't spend hours putting on make-up before shows, we don't have journals of our feelings, we don't play downstrokes for every song, we don't have techno breakdowns, we don't have pretentiously long song titles, we don't fake british accents, we don't get knocked out by bottles thrown at us on stage, and we don't dress in clothes that none of our fans can afford, and for none of this do we apologize. We believe in extended guitar solos, drummers with more cymbals than he has fingers, bass playing that doesn't just double the guitar, and singing with all your heart and soul. We're Soul Vibration.

Live Love...Love Life...Play Music”

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Listen to the music of Soul Vibration here: http://www.myspace.com/EnjoySoulVibration

The word of the day is…multifarious?

Who says that jocks are dumb? These days, keeping up with the modern advancements in college football requires a PHD in astrophysics, an MD with a specialization in infectious diseases, a law degree, graduate study in mathematics, business savvy and, apparently, a Nobel laureate quality vocabulary. The computer system that provides the rankings used to calculate College Football’s BCS rankings is run by a group of intellectuals whom the Honolulu Advertiser describes as, you guessed it, multifarious.

I consider myself a fairly loquacious scholar, possessor of an above average lexicon and, while at times wordy, poignantly verbose. But, multifarious? I don’t have any idea what to do with something that is farious, let alone many times over. I guess that’s the price of doing business in the multibillion dollar industry of College Football. If that trend continues I’ll need a graduate degree in jargon just to keep up.

Read the full article here: Multifarious mix runs BCS computers

The Big Ten is a sub par conference…in Division I-AA!

So far this year, the Michigan Wolverine football team lost to Division I-AA Appalachian State, the Minnesota football team lost to Division I-AA North Dakota State, the Michigan State basketball team lost to Division I-AA Grand Valley State and the Ohio State basketball team, last year’s NCAA runner-up, lost to Findlay. (That’s right, Findlay. No word if that’s Finday U, Findlay State or Findlay Tech.)

For those keeping score at home, that’s Division I-AA 4, Big Ten 0.

Does anyone really believe that Ohio State is the best football team in the country?

You heard it here first, Ohio State is going to get trounced in the national championship game for the second year in a row.

A sterling endorsement for the Hawaii educational system

Responding to a recent report that seven Hawaii public schools were classified as “dropout factories”, for having graduation rates below 60%, the state Department of Education spokesman Greg Knudsen issued a statement saying “Hawaii ninth-graders tend to fall behind and inflate freshman enrollment. So comparing the number of freshman and seniors at any given year to determine dropout and graduation rates is misleading.”

That makes sense. The Department of Education isn’t to blame, we just have terrible teachers.

Real classy, Greg.

Read the full story here: 7 Oahu schools ‘dropout factories’

David Stern crawls out from under a rock…

Last week, David Stern issued a statement chastising the Knicks for mismanagement, in light of their recent sexual harassment scandal. In addition, Stern declared that the holocaust was a display of poor judgment, cigarettes are detrimental to your health and the world is round.

Read the full article here: David Stern criticizes the Knicks for bad management

Further proof that Colt Brennan is the man

If you needed any more proof that Colt Brennan is a stud, check out his latest blog entry for the New York times. Rather than wasting time self-aggrandizing, Brennan takes the opportunity to extol his wide receivers. Truly, a class act.

Read the full article here: Brennan and the Dread Heads

Eric Andre is the funniest comedian you’ve never heard of…

Much like with Soul Vibration, I’ll let Eric Andre do the talking.



Rock beats scissors, scissors beat paper, dolphin beats shark

In case you needed another reason why dolphins are the coolest animals ever, check out this story about a pod of dolphins that saved a surfer from a Great White Shark. In honor of their undeniable awesomeatude (that’s right, awsomeatude, pronounced awe-summa-tude), I hereby declare dolphins to be the official animal of the J-Borhood.

[Special note to my family: Don’t worry. Sophie (my dog) is the official pet of the J-Borhood. A much more prestigious title. Just don’t tell the dolphins that…]

Read the full article here: Dolphins rescue surfer from shark

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That about wraps it up for the inaugural J-Borhood mixed plate, all rights reserved (Not really, but it sounds more pretentious that way). For those keeping score at home, we covered football, baseball, basketball, Colt Brennan, music, comedy, sharks, dolphins and the Hawaiian educational system. Some would call it crazy, I’d just call it another day in the J-Borhood.

Ciao!

Soldiers of Fortune

Aloha, friends and J-Bors. Let's start things off with a few college football questions:

1. Is the University of Hawaii one of the top twelve football teams in NCAA Division I football?


2. Is Ohio State the best team in the country?


3. Is LSU better than Oregon?


4. Does Kansas deserve a shot at the national championship?


5. Is Colt Brennan a better Quarterback then me?

Hint: Each question has the same answer.

Hint: No, is not the answer. (Mea culpa for the double negative)

Hint: Yes, is not the answer either.

Confused?

The answer to each question is that you have an insufficient sample size.
No one can definitively say whether Hawaii is one of the top twelve teams in the country, because they haven't played any team ranked in the Top 25. Similarly, no once can definitively say whether the best team in the country is Ohio State, LSU, Oregon or Kansas because none of the teams have played each other. Lastly, no one can definitively say whether Colt Brennan is a better Quarterback then me, because they haven’t seen me play. (Seriously, if you saw my deep ball… My cell phone is always on, Coach Jones.) But I'll take it a step further. You could not definitively say whether Ohio State, Boston College, LSU, Oregon, Kansas or Hawaii was better then any of the other teams even if they did play.

College football is an unpredictable sport, played by 20 year old kids with a ball that doesn't bounce straight. Crazy things happen. Whether it’s fumbles, interceptions, injuries, hail marries, torrential downpours or snow storms, college football embodies Murphy’s Law. Therefore, making a definitive judgment based on one game isn’t just difficult, it’s impossible. So far this season, the #5 ranked Michigan Wolverines lost to an Appalachian State team that doesn’t even play Division I football; USC, winners of two of the last four national championships, lost to lowly Stanford, who played the second half back-up quarterback; There was a stretch where the number two team in the country lost to an unranked opponent four weeks in a row!

This vast volatility leaves pollsters and analysts scrambling for a way to fairly and accurately rank teams that have a handful of games, with incredibly dissimilar schedules. Needless to say, finding a fair and accurate way to rank college football teams is about as easy as getting fair and balanced coverage from Fox News. In lieu of any concrete means of comparison, analysts often resort to comparing games against shared opponents. For instance, the University of Hawaii needed a last minute field goal and overtime to beat Louisiana Tech 45-44. The next week, Cal torched La. Tech to the tune of 42-12. On paper, that seems to suggest that Cal is a far superior to Hawaii. Easy enough, right?
Unfortunately for Hawaii, that does not take into account the four Hawaii turnovers, the 103 degree game time temperature and 100% humidity, which caused the Hawaii Center to sweat so profusely he couldn’t hike the ball, or the 4000+ mile road trip Hawaii traveled to play La. Tech – To put that road trip in to context, LSU, the number two team in the country, will travel an estimated 1308 miles combined on all their road trips this season and had only one road trip longer then 300 miles, which they lost. Comparing Hawaii’s win over Louisiana Tech to Cal’s win is like comparing David Caruso’s work on NYPD Blue to his performance on CSI: Miami. Both feature over-dramatic punch line deliveries, scads of unintentional comedy and more melodrama then a freshman girl’s introduction to vodka, but the roles have such different context – in NYPD Blue he was the rugged, excessively cheesy up and comer, whereas in CSI Miami he doesn’t realize that we’re laughing at him, not with him – that they’re virtually impossible to compare.

But let’s imagine, for a second, that we live in some magical fairy tale kingdom, where we can accurately compare independent events from vastly dissimilar context. Let’s call it, say, ESPN. Even in the gum drop forest of this pristine imaginary utopia, we cannot escape the laws of probability.

Warning: The following section contains math-related material. Parental discretion is advised. (Becaues really, does anything make you want to read/watch something more then "Parental disrecresion is advised?")

As we discussed before, almost anything can happen in college football. Even the best teams have off days; Upsets happen all the time. So even the best teams in the country don’t have a 100% chance of winning when they step on the field. In fact, the best teams in the country have about an 80% chance to win each game, on average, which roughly equates to a 10-2 season.

From a purely statistical perspective, a twelve event sample size for an event that has an 80% chance of success has a margin of error of 11%, or 1.3 games. To say that in plain(er) English, in Football, a game in which one game represents the difference between a historic season and utter disappointment, one game a season is almost purely attributable to chance.

A moment of silence to let that sink in. (Sorry for ending a sentence in a preposition, but I’d sound like an absolute ass if I said ‘A moment of silence, in to let that sink.’)

That means, in any given football season, a team that should finish 10-2 has an equal chance of finishing 9-3, and out of the running for any major bowl game as it does to finish 11-1 and in the running for the national championship game. That does not mean that the team that went 10-2 (or 9-3 for that matter), is necessarily worse then a team that goes 11-1; It could just as easily mean that the team at 11-1 got a fortunate bounce from the oblong leather ball during one moment of their incredibly short season.

As American’s we tend to trust what our eyes can see or, as we move further in to the digital age, what our formula’s can deduce. We want to explain. We want the illusion of control. We want to confidently declare, my team is, without a doubt, the best team in the country. But, we can’t. This drives us crazy and leads to numerous injustices (like a 12-0 Auburn team missing out on the national championship game to a 11-1 Oklahoma team, who lost their last game of the season. Seriously, can we make a rule that any team who loses their last game of the season DOES NOT deserve to play for the national championship? Do I even need to bother telling you that the two teams for who this happened got slaughtered in the national championship game????) but it, like every cloud, has a silver lining.

The element of chance provides the opportunity for non-traditional powerhouses to make history in college football. In the past few seasons, we’ve seen Utah and Boise State play in BCS Bowls. This season, the University of Hawaii, a team never before ranked in the top 15, located 2500 miles away from its nearest opponent have a chance to knock down the door. Meanwhile, Boston College, Oregon and Kansas flirt with history as they attempt to qualify for the national championship game. Less games means less opportunities for teams to revert to the mean, which means more chance for the unexpected and more opportunities for an unheralded team to sneak in the back door (I hereby, solemnly swear, that this is the last time I ever use the phrase “sneak in the back door”.)

Similarly, the near infinite randomness of college football makes every game a “can’t miss” experience. It provides a heightened importance to every game, something no other sport can claim. Even a die-hard college basketball fan will miss a game or two each season. A die-hard college football fan will cancel flights and ask friends to postpone weddings in order to watch each game. (Which any true friend would gladly do.) Basketball games are events. Baseball games are events. Football games, on the other hand, are moments in history. As Ivan Maisel, senior college football writer for ESPN deftly put it, “Name me one regular season college basketball game that you remember.” (I have to go all the way back to the mid-90’s and UH’s Justice Sueing elbowing future NBA player Keith Van Horn of Utah in the head. To this day, the best elbow I’ve ever seen in a basketball game. What does it say about college basket ball that the last regular season game I remember involved an elbow to the head?)

This heightened sense of importance also fuels the fire of the hype machine, that drives college football. Debate over rankings, bowl games and national championship appearances starts before the season begins and often doesn’t stop until well after the season ends. Every other sport in the country, from college to the pros, answer their questions on the field. In college football, the burning questions are rarely answered on the field, so the ESPN’s, Sports Illustrated’s, Sporting News’s and the like are left to debate them off the field. It’s what makes the debate so compelling and, in all honesty, why you’re still listening to me blabber on about probability’s effect on college football for over 1500 words.

At the end of the day, as much as we want to compare and analyze college football teams and as much as we want to drink the kool-aid when ESPN proudly declares the superiority of our team, this chance, this randomness, this undeniable destiny of college football and laughably small sample size prevents us from making the type of declarative statements, which make us feel most comfortable. So stop trying to make sense of it all. Just sit back, relax and enjoy all that makes college football special.

Enjoy the tradition. Enjoy the pageantry. Enjoy the school spirit. And, of course, enjoy the randomness.

So next time someone asks you if Hawaii is one of the top twelve teams in the country, tell them the sample size is too small to say and no one will ever know, but as long as the polls say it, it’s alright with you.

If they then ask you whether I’m a better QB then Colt, tell them, at least I’ve got the hair…