The Jimmy First Half Recap - 2010

For 28 years, I followed the same, simple, successful formula for filling out my NCAA tournament bracket.

• Pick the two best teams on either side of the bracket to meet in the National Title Game
• Pick one or two underrated #2-#4 seeds to upset the favorite in their bracket and make it to the Final Four
• Pick a couple mid-majors with the right combination of talent, heart, coaching, and senior leadership to make it to the Sweet 16
• When in doubt, pick the teams with the best pro prospects
• Most importantly: Follow your heart, not your head

This formula helped me and my Dad win his company NCAA Pool in 1992 when the Fab Five lead Michigan on an improbable run to the Championship Game. It helped me finish fourth in The Jimmy in 2007 and third, with the most overall correct picks, in 2008.

But, then 2009 happened.

Scottie Reynolds's full court layup with one second remaining to upset Pitt -- my national championship pick -- happened.

North Carolina -- everyone else's National Championship pick -- happened.

A 16th place finish out of 20 -- which includes a bracket that picked Morehead State to make it to the Final Four and one that selected the Akron Zips to win the National Title -- happened.

Broken, lost, and confused, I decided it was time for a change. Twenty eight years of informal, observational, accumulated knowledge had taken me as far as it could. I needed a secret weapon.

So, I turned to the one source I swore I'd never use. The antithesis of the serendipitous unpredictability of March Madness: Computer Rankings.

I found brackets based on the statistical probabilities of the NCAA Tournament outcomes as predicted by the two most respected public NCAA basketball metrics, the Saragrin Ratings (http://www.wagesofwins.com/Sagarin10.htm) and Ken Pomeroy's Pythagorean Ratings (http://www.wagesofwins.com/Pomeroy10.htm), and used those as a guide to fill out my own bracket. It pained me to knock out Ohio State, my sentimental favorite; It killed me to pencil Duke into the Championship game; It felt silly to knock out Kentucky before the Final Four because of their plethora of NBA ready bodies; But, I put my own misgivings on hold. I figured the computers knew best.

Newsflash: They don't.

Georgetown? Gone.

Pittsburgh? Gone.

Villanova? Gone.

Kansas? Gone.

My bracket? On life support.

Meanwhile, my two sentimental favorites (Remember Rule #5?), Ohio State and Kentucky, are the prohibitive favorites to meet in the National Title Game. The one year I decide to mix it up and play it safe instead of following my gut instinct, Madness ensues. How fitting.

To be fair, I should have known better. I just watched my favorite baseball team, the Chicago Cubs, obliterate three years of positive momentum and throw a hand grenade on a team that won 97 games by signing notorious sociopath Milton Bradley to a longterm deal in an attempt to "shake things up". At least now, I have a better sense of what led the Cubs to make their fatal mistake; I know how the desperation of continual loss can impede your judgement and am all too familiar with the consequences.

Lesson learned. From now on, I stick with what works. I'll dance with the one that brought me. Even if it means the occasional brush with disaster, I'm going to keep following my hear over my head, rooting for the little guy, and trusting my gut.

Which, of course, means that next year someone will use the Saragrin or Pythagorean Ratings next year and win the Jimmy.

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Without further ado, let's hand out the Jimmy First Half Awards!

DVD Rewinder Award for most spectacular failure: pitt pitt pitt (pitt) pitt (Mike)

A mere 12 hours after the tip-off of the NCAA Tournament, Mike's championship pick, the Georgetown Hoyas, was eliminated from the tournament. This set a record for the fastest a title game pick has ever been eliminated from the tournament, which is incredible, considering we've had participants (well, participant, ahem, Jenn) pick the Akron Zips and the Sienna Saints to cut down the nets.

Hey, if you're going to go out, might as well go out big.

[Author's Note: Yes, the DVD Rewinder is real. http://www.dvdrewinder.com/]

Keyser Soze Award for Most Swift and Bitter Revenge: pitt pitt pitt (pitt) pitt (Mike)

Less than 48 hours after his title hopes were dashed by Georgetown's early exit, I imagine Mike got no small amount of satisfaction from watching 13 of the 24 brackets lose their title game pick when Northern Iowa defeated Kansas.

Hey, misery loves company.

Dare to be different Award: The Jimmy (Trenton), Hayes (Hayes), your po po poker face (Eric), finehungcanibals (Uri)

Trenton, Hayes, Eric, and Uri all had a little gumption, a little courage, a little chutzpah, when they filled out their brackets and they were thusly rewarded. When Northern Iowa shocked the world (well, my world, at least) and knocked out Kansas they also knocked out the championship matchup for over half the participants in The Jimmy.

But, while everyone else blithely put Kansas in the title game, these brave souls dared to fill-in teams like Syracuse, West Virginia, Baylor, and Ohio State and are the only four remaining players with their title game still intact after the Sweet 16.

Fortune, indeed, favors the bold.

[Author's Note: After the initial round of Sweet 16 games, it appears that only Uri with his (seemingly) bizarre pick of Kansas St. vs. Baylor in the Finals still has both his title game participants still alive. Bravo, Uri. Bravo.]


Lloyd Christmas "So you're saying there's a chance" Award: Almighty J (Justin)

I can still win. (Barely)

If Ohio State beats Syracuse, after Syracuse beats Xavier -- who themselves defeated Kansas State -- and then wins the National Title Game over Duke, who beat West Virginia following West Virginia's victory over Kentucky after they after beat St. Mary's, following St. Mary's rousing upset of Baylor…

… then I win. I'm not saying it's likely, but I'm saying there's a chance!



[Author's Note: In fitting fashion, this opportunity never got off the ground with Syracuse losing the first game of the day on Thursday. Stupid computer rankings...]


Biggest semi-related, seemingly innocuous annoyance: My phone's predictive text function auto-completing Duke to "Duke's"

Every time I tried to send a text message about the Duke Blue Devils, my phone started referring to them as the Blue Devils who belonged to Duke. This happened 15 times before I got gave up and started calling them by their official name: The Entitled-Pansy-Choke-Artists.

[Author's Note: Yes, that was a clever slight of hand to distract you from the fact that I picked Duke to make it to the title game.]

Trend that needs to end now: Picking all #1 seeds in the Final Four

Following the relatively upset free past two tournaments, highlighted by all number one seeds making it to the Final Four in 2008, a quarter of the entrants (Dad, Mom, Deanna, Nick, Pete, and Aaron) picked every number one seed to make it to the Final Four this year. Luckily, the Basketball Gods smote on their brackets by eliminating Kansas [Author's Note: and later Syracuse in the Sweet 16], but this brazen conformity and lack of imagination or insight, flies in the face of NCAA Tournament.

It's March Madness, not March Lack-of-any-dicernible-melodrama.

I will similarly mock any future participants who show such limited courage and imagination into their Final Four. Consider yourself warned.

(Of course, now that I say that, I'm sure we'll have more Four #1 seed Final Four's than ever next year. Long live the JBorhood.)

Best off-the-wall pick that had a bizarro chance to succeed: Forgive me I'm a Brit (Neal) picking Murray State to go to the Final Four

If you took a quick glance at Neal's bracket, you probably wouldn't see anything out of the ordinary. Kansas over Kentucky in the Finals. Baylor upsetting Duke to make it to the Final Four. And then there was the West Region.

Neal had the Murray State Racers (seriously? The Racers? I had them losing in the first round just on principal.) knocking off #4 Vanderbilt, #5 Butler, #1 Syracuse, and #10 BYU in succession to represent the West in the Final Four against Kansas. Wow.

Because of Neal's gonzo pick, I paid special attention to the Murray State, Vanderbilt game. Murray State didn't stand a chance, right? But then they got a lead. Then they took the lead into half time. Then they extended the lead in the second half, leading 44-36. As Vanderbilt battled back, I started rooting for Murray State, if only to keep Neal's ballsy upset pick alive.

Unfortunately, Vanderbilt took control down the stretch and hit a pair of free throws to take a 65-64 lead with only 4.5 seconds left. But, Murray State refused to lose. Coach Billy Kennedy asked point guard Issac Miles to make a play and Miles found forward Danero Thomas open at the top of the key, who fakes his man, drove into the key and calmly knocked down a 15-footer at the buzzer to send the Racers into the second round.

Sadly, Neal's (and the Racers') dream died there as Murray State lost a two point heartbreaker to fifth-seeded Butler.

Regardless, Neal earned a hearty JBorhood salute for having the foresight (and the balls) to bet it all on Murray State.

The Mitch D'Olier memorial Award for contestant that enters the tournament, but forgets to fill out their entire bracket: MEGALODON! (Jordan D'Olier)

Taking a page from my Dad, who forgot to fill out his Final Four and Championship picks in 2008, my brother Jordan forgot to complete his bracket. And by complete, I mean fill out any picks whatsoever. His bracket lives on in name only, which is fitting, because much like Megalodon, Jordan's picks don't exist.

As a result of winning, Jordan becomes the Award's new namesake, absolving my Dad of further embarrassment. Until someone relieves him of the title, the award for "contestant who enter the tournament, but forgets to fill out their entire bracket" will be called the Jordan D'Olier Memorial Award.

Congratulations, Jordan.
Shocking fact of the 2010 NCAA Tournament: The mid-majors are every bit as good as big guys

We've had our fair share of mid-major teams make waves in the NCAA Tournament. From Gonzaga to George Mason, numerous mid-major schools proved they could hang with the big boys on the big stage. But, most of those squads relied on some combination of luck, guile, and chemistry to overcome a deficit of talent. Not anymore.

I don't know if it's a down year for Big Conferences or whether there's simply a glut of talent in Mid-Major schools right now, but there were a large number of "Cinderellas" who were every bit as athletic and talented as their favored counterpart. Robert Morris wasn't overwhelmed by Villanova's speed; Murray State was arguably better than Vanderbilt; Old Dominion was flat out better than Notre Dame. These schools weren't lucky to advance. They simply outplayed their more celebrated rival.

I sincerely hope this is a sign of things to come.

Most aptly named bracket Award - no upsets ever (Aaron)

I wanted to give the award to Dawn, whose bracket name, The Madness, accurately describes her pick of #16 seed Lehigh over Kansas, but when the Jayhawks fell to Northern Iowa in Round 2, it became impossible to ignore the fact that there might be a method behind The Madness. Furthermore, it is literally impossible to have a name that more accurately describes one's picks then Aaron's choice of no upsets ever, considering he picked no upsets.

Unfortunately for Aaron, the basketball Gods frowned upon his strategy and gave us the most unpredictable, upset-filled tournament in recent memory. (On a related note, this also qualified Aaron for the "You Get What You Deserve You Non-Upset Picking S.O.B." Award.)


The Shaun Holaday Memorial Award for bracket with the best chance to win that has no business winning: Hezballers (Shaun Holaday)

In 2008, Shaun won the tournament despite picking the least number of games correctly (excluding participants who did not realize the number next to teams indicated their rankings or picked Sienna to win it all because "Sienna is the greatest city in Tuscany"), because he was the only contestant who correctly picked Kansas to win it all and the weighted scoring system gives an overwhelmingly unfair number of points for picking the National Champion. (On a related note, no, I'm not still bitter that I finished third despite picking the most number of correct games. Moving on...)

Once again, Shaun found himself at the bottom of the pool after the Sweet 16 (leading only MEGALADON!, if only slightly), yet still in position to take home a second Jimmy Title because of his unconventional pick of West Virginia to win it all. If UWV wins, Shaun wins. Again.

(On a related note, I lied about not still being bitter.)

Team I really wish that I watched before rushing to judgement about: Kentucky

Both computer rankings picked Kentucky to lose to Wisconsin in the Sweet 16. All the talking heads said they were too young to go all the way. So, I ignored my better judgement and picked them to bow out to West Virginia in the Elite Eight.

Then I actually watched them play.

Wow.

What an unfathomably talented team. They have two of the top three NBA Draft picks, both of whom have NBA ready bodies. They have two to three other players who'll get significant NBA minutes. They go about 12 deep. They have more front court depth than the Chicago Bulls.

At this point, I don't wonder if they'll win it all. I wonder whether anyone will lose by less than ten.

Stupid computer rankings.


Easiest path to victory Award: Gremlins (Brit)

Brit is currently in first place and one of only two people who picked Duke to win it all. Simply put, if Duke wins three more games, Brit wins the Jimmy.

Fortunately for the rest of us, we don't have to deal with the taste of vomit in our mouths from selecting Duke to win a National Championship.

Easiest path to victory that won't make the winner vomit in their mouth Award: your po po ker face (Eric)

If Kentucky wins, Eric wins. Simple. Easy. Non-vomit inducing.


Remaining Game(s) that everyone is watching: Kentucky/WVU vs Duke/Baylor

Everyone -- well, everyone besides Uri (finehungcannibals) and Eric (your po po ker face) -- had either Kansas or Ohio State in the Championship Game. Now that both bowed out early, the only drama left to unfold is whether Kentucky, West Virginia, Duke or Baylor will come out of the right side of the bracket.

As luck would have it, different participants picked each school to win meaning the winner of the Jimmy hangs in the balance.

Will West Virginia, Bob Huggins, and Bob Huggins's track suit lead West Virginia and Shaun to his second improbable Jimmy Title?

Will Baylor shock the world and guide Uri to a victory in his inaugural Jimmy campagin?

Will Kentucky continue their murderous rampage, vaulting Eric from the depths of the standings to a comeback victory?

Or will Duke piss off everyone except for Charles and cut down the nets?

We'll have to wait and see.

Good luck in the second half, everyone!