NFL Playoff Primer 2008

Apparently, God does not care about football.

There is no other explanation for the fact that the Patriots, a team that caught for cheating and channeled their insolence at getting caught into motivation to run up the score on opponents all year, finished the season undefeated and had two players set the NFL records for touchdown passes and catches in a single season. I kept telling myself that God would step in at some point. I could not believe that he would reward the Patriots for their embarrassing display of poor sportsmanship. Then, during the last game of the season, it looked like God had finally had enough and was going to put an end to the Patriots ill gotten gains. With the Patriots trailing the Giants 23-28 at the beginning of the fourth quarter, Tom Brady threw a picture perfect 40 yard bomb to a wide open Randy Moss who only had to catch the ball to give the Patriots the lead and set the all time TD pass and receiving records for Brady and Moss. But, in a stunning turn of events, the sure handed Moss dropped the easy catch, seemingly ending the Patriots drive. But on the very next play, Brady hit Moss using THE EXACT SAME PLAY and the Giants could only stand around and watch as Moss strolled into the end zone, setting the records and giving the Patriots a lead they would never relinquish.

I had always believed that God played a part, however small, in the outcome of football games. Not to say that I thought he would predetermine the outcome of each game (because then, watching football games from heaven would be boring), rather that given the right circumstances, he would occasional intervene to make sure that fair play, hard work and good sportsmanship were duly rewarded. How else can you explain the Colts beating the vastly superior Bears in last year’s Super Bowl? (Ok, even I can’t say that with a straight face.) Seriously though, in the history of the NFL it has always seemed like God has used his power to influence certain games. The drive. The catch. The immaculate reception. Boise State’s shocking upset of Oklahoma. Games that can only be described as miracles. It would be shocking and sad to learn that these amazing events were simply the confluence of hard work, practice and good fortune.

But, there’s still hope. Perhaps God is simply trying to draw out the suspense. Perhaps He believes it will be more damaging to the Patriots to come so close to a perfect season, only to lose it all in the playoffs. For now, all we can do is hope. Because at this point, it appears that the only thing that can stop the Patriots is an act of God.

---

2007 NFL Playoff Prognostication

Wild Card Round

NFC

Seattle over Washington

I feel like an asshole for picking against the Redskins since they’re the emotional underdog favorite in the wake of Sean Taylor’s death, but I can’t bring myself to pick a team led by Todd Collins, a 36 year-old journeyman quarterback who hasn’t had a starting job in 10 years, playing on the road, in one of the loudest and most difficult stadiums to play in the league. I want to believe in Collins – how can you not cheer for a guy named after a cocktail – but how can you put any faith in a guy who’s been passed over by 32 teams for 10 years, while Jonathan Quinn, Chad Hutchinson and Henry Burris have all had starting roles. As far as I’m concerned, the only logical explanation is that the alien that took over the body of Kurt Warner when he came down from “Canada” has now taken residence in the body of Todd Collins. Still, alien or not, I just don’t see it happening.

Tampa Bay over New York

Every year people say that Eli Manning is going to take the next step and become a big time quarterback and pick the Giants to win in the playoffs. Then, every year, the Giants get blown out in the first round of the playoffs. This year, in the wake of the Giants impressive showing against the Patriots in the final game of the season, people are once again saying that this is the year Eli Manning and the Giants take the next step. I’ll believe it when I see it.

AFC

Jacksonville over Pittsburgh

This has obvious game written all over it. Jacksonville dominated Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh three weeks ago, now, Pittsburgh lost their leading rusher Willie Parker, defensive standout Anthony Smith and their starting AND backup left Tackles. Everyone around the country is picking Jacksonville to win. Even Las Vegas got in on the action, making Jacksonville a one point favorite. In fact, the evidence is stacked up so much in favor of the Jaguars, that the all of the alarm bells in my head are ringing. If Jacksonville wins it would mean that the Jaguars, a team from southern Florida, would have beaten Pittsburgh in the winter in Pittsburgh twice in the span of a month. My better judgment says to go against the grain and pick the Steelers at home, but when have I ever listened to my better judgment? Go Jags!

San Diego over Tennessee

I’m looking forward to San Diego winning this game by 30 points, leading to a groundswell of support for the Chargers as they head to Indianapolis to face the Colts. I’m even more excited to laugh at everyone who jumps on the San Diego bandwagon, forgetting that means picking Phillip Rivers and Norv Turner on the road against Payton Manning and Tony Dungy.

Divisional Playoffs

NFC
Green Bay over Seattle

I don’t know if you’re heard, but upon winning the coin toss in overtime in the 2004 playoffs, Seahawks Quarterback Matt Hasslebeck announced “we’ll take the ball and we’re gonna score!”. It’s not like anyone has mentioned it lately…

Seriously, perhaps I missed the memo, but I think football pundits are required to bring up the anecdote when discussing the upcoming Packers, Seahawks game. I would not be surprised to learn that they have a quota. In fact, I’m pretty sure Joe Buck mumbled “Hasslebeck’s gonnataketheballandscore,” right before going to commercial break during the pregame show. Seemed a little weird at the time…

The sad part about the media’s singular focus on Hasslebeck’s infamous proclamation is that IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THIS GAME.

Aside from the obvious history of Hasslebeck, Favre and ex-Packers coach turned Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren, these teams are completely different from the two units that matched up in 2004.

No one gives the Seahawks a chance in this game. They say Shaun Alexander is finished, Matt Hasslbeck looks erratic and their defense is overrated. While I certainly agree that Shaun Alexander is a broken shell of his former self (not sure when he decided to start up the Cedric Benson work out program), but I’m a big Hasslebeck fan and I think the defense has the speed and athleticism up front to put pressure on Brett Favre and disrupt the timing of their wide open spread offense.

That said, ever since the Packers developed a running game in week 8, behind the where-the-hell-did-he-come-from Ryan Grant (and no, I’m not bitter that the Packers found an undrafted free agent who turned into a stud running back while the Bears big money first round draft pick has turned into a fat, slow joke of a back. Not bitter at all…), they’ve looked like a complete football team. The defense is young and athletic with talent at all positions, the wide receiving core is big, fast and talented, and Brett Favre is, well, Brett Favre.

So, while I certainly think the Seahawks have the talent to make this an interesting game, I find it highly unlikely that they march into Lambeau Field and beat Brett Favre in Packer country in the middle of winter.

Original Prediction: Dallas over Tampa Bay
Revised Prediction: New York over Dallas

Generally, I subscribe to the theory of “I’ll believe it, when I see it.” In fact, I said as much last week when I predicted that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would beat the New York Giants.

“This year, in the wake of the Giants impressive showing against the Patriots in the final game of the season, people are once again saying that this is the year Eli Manning and the Giants take the next step. I’ll believe it when I see it.”

In the wake of Eli Manning’s impressive showing for the second straight week, I’m left with a new dilemma: whether to believe the real Eli Manning is the that the calm and collected Eli Manning of the past two weeks or the erratic, inaccurate Eli Manning of the past three years. Color me cautiously optimistic. I still think Eli Manning lacks the accuracy or composure to be a consistent threat at quarterback, but I think he’s gained the confidence and respect of his teammates to allow him to succeed. I’m the first to admit that that was a noncommittal answer, but here’s why I don’t mind making such a vague statement: I don’t think Eli is the difference in this game.

Every year there’s a team that looks great in the beginning of season, runs out to a big lead in their conference, locks up home field advantage throughout the playoffs, coasts through the last few weeks of the season and then struggles to find their rhythm in the playoffs. This season, that team in the Dallas Cowboys. They played terrible, sloppy football for the last four games of the year and haven’t played a meaningful football game in over a month. Now, they’re matched up against their bitter division rivals, who are playing their best football of the season, for the third time this season. Furthermore, the status of their primary playmaker, Terrell Owens, is in jeopardy due to an ankle injury and their leader, quarterback Tony Romo, is coming back from a week long vacation in Cancun with his starlet girlfriend, Jessica Simpson. Not the kind of momentum you want to carry into a football game.

I think that Dallas is the better team and I’m still not sold on this New York Giants team, but Dallas is engulfed in far too many distractions to devote the focus necessitated by their most important game of the season. And plus, the opportunity for the Giants to come out of nowhere, sweep through the NFC and provide Tom Brady the opportunity to beat two Mannings in a row on his way to the Super Bowl is too exciting to pass up.

AFC
New England over Jacksonville

Every year, one team is dubbed “the team of destiny”. For get some lucky breaks early in the season, start playing their best football at the end of the year and end up winning the hearts and minds of the pundits. This year, Jacksonville has taken up the mantle of team of destiny, which has many people proclaiming that they have a good shot to knock off the New England Patriots.

Nonsense.

New England is too good, too talented, too driven and too well coached to let their quest for a perfect season slip away to the Jaguars. Don’t get me wrong, the Jaguars have the type of physical defense that can put pressure on Tom Brady, disrupt the well oiled machine of New England’s offense and potentially shock the world, but in the end, their defense is too simple and their offense is too one-dimensional to compete with New England. Tom Brady should pick apart their suspect secondary, put up an obscene amount of points and force David Garrard into trying to match Brady score for score. Unfortunately for Jacksonville, only two quarterbacks (Payton Manning and Brett Favre, maybe Tony Romo) have the ability to keep up with the Patriots offense and David Garrard is not one of them.

I believe that the Jaguars are the team of destiny, but not even destiny can help them against the Patriots. I think New England wins by three touchdowns. At least.

Indianapolis over San Diego

Phillip Rivers vs. Payton Manning
Norv Turn vs. Tony Dungy

Nuff said.

Well, almost enough. Before I sign off, I want to silence the ridiculous notion that the Chargers are going to win, because they beat the Colts when they played each other earlier this year. In that game, Indianapolis was missing 7 starters, San Diego returned a punt and a kickoff for touchdowns, Payton Manning threw six interceptions, and San Diego still required an Adam Vinitieri miss on a chip shot field goal to win the game. At home.

Seriously, nuff said.

Conference Championships

We’re breaking new ground here in the J-Borhood. Historically, my predictions have been comically inept. They’ve been more useful for predicting who won’t win then predicting who will. This year, both of my predicted Super Bowl teams are still playing and both have the home field advantage, making a Super Bowl matchup likely.

I’m not sure what we’ll do in the wake of such a stunning turn of events. You might begin to trust what I say. If that’s not a scary thought, I don’t know what is…

Without further ado, let’s get to the games.

NFC
Original Prediction: Green Bay over Dallas
Revised Prediction: Green Bay over New York

AFC
Original Prediction: New England over Indianapolis
Revised Prediction: New England over San Diego

Usually, I prefer to break down each game separately. In this case, however, both match up heavily favored teams with future hall of fame quarterback against teams with strong disruptive defenses. The underdogs chances to pull off the upset hinges on the J-Borhood Axiom of Quarterbacks:

The quality of quarterback play is directly proportional to the quality of the offensive line play.

If the underdogs can put pressure on Tom Brady and Brett Favre, they have a chance – repeat, a chance – to pull off the upset. If they don’t collapse the pocket and Brady and Favre have an opportunity to drop back, drink a cup of coffee, check the morning paper and then throw the football, they’re in serious, serious trouble.
I know that seems like a simplistic take on two wildly different games and not the usual level of depth erudite J-Borhood faithful have come to expect, but both games really are that simple.

Trust me. I’m the guy that made the great predictions, remember?

Super Bowl

New England over Green Bay