A thin correlation between love and hate

WARNING: Reading the following article will make you an asshole. Not quite a just-finished-reading-Atlas-Shrugged asshole, more like a guy-at-the-office-who-explains-why-you-paid-too-much-for-your-new-car asshole. So, if you don't want your friends to hate you because of your new found proclivity for bloviating about statistical misconceptions, you may want to skip this week's article.

Consider yourself warned.

(Yeah, I just said bloviating. That just happened).

I love the start of the Football season. The pageantry of the college game, the intensity of the NFL, and, most of all, the idiocy of football commentators. It would seem, the only qualifications for discussing football on TV, radio or in print are a lukewarm knowledge of the game, a below average intellect, and a penchant for making controversial statements. (Yes, I do realize the inherent irony of that statement coming from me.) Furthermore, since so many people discuss football, everyone tries to come up with new, original insights, no matter how absurd, just so they can claim the idea as their own.

If Carson Palmer completes 73.275% of his passes, the Bengals will win tonight.

If Georgia turns the ball over less then three times, scores more then 26 and three quarters points and limits USC to 316 passing yards or less, they will definitely win.

As long as Jon Gruden finishes his grilled cheese sandwich by half time, Tampa Bay should win on Sunday.

I'm confident that if the University of Hawaii scores more points then San Jose State, they'll have a good chance to win.

I find this unendingly funny, because football is, inherently, a simple game. The team that controls the line of scrimmage and protects the ball usually wins. Other then that, you're splitting hairs and over analyzing a game between twenty-somethings with a ball that doesn't bounce straight.

That's not to say that there aren't valid statistical indicators. How well a team runs the football, how well a team stops the run, and a team's turnover margin, all provide quality insight about a team. But, outside of those, which, as you may have noticed, simply indicate how well a team controls the line of scrimmage and protects the ball, most other statistics are simply flashy numbers that commentators misinterpret to prove their own preconceived notions.

My favorite statistic, bar none, that commentators routinely misinterpret is the correlation between how many rushing yards a team gets and whether or not they win.

Today, while predicting the outcome of various college football games on his radio program, Colin Cowherd said the key to the Florida-Tennessee match up, is who does a better job running the football. Colin came to this conclusion because the team that rushed for more yardage won the last six match ups.

Wow.

That's amazing.

Unbelievable, really.

I think my mind exploded.

It's brilliant, except, of course, for the fact that it's not at all true.

What Colin failed to realize is the distinction between correlation and causation. Correlation says whether or not two things are related, like rushing for more yards and winning football games or watching sports on my couch drinking beer and having the day off. Causation, on the other hand, says whether or not one thing causes the other. You see, just because I'm typically watching sports on my couch drinking beer on my days off, does not mean that watching sports on my couch drinking beer causes me to have the day off. (Believe me. I've tried.) Simply that the two occur simultaneously with relative frequency. Similarly, that fact that teams that rush for more yards typically win football games, does not mean that rushing for more yards then the other team causes teams to win football games. In fact, it's the other way around.

When teams have the lead, they typically rush the football to take time off the clock and protect the ball. Conversely, when teams are behind, they typically throw the football to try and score as fast as possible. Because of this, teams that win, typically have more rushing plays, ergo, bingo bango, more rushing yards. Rushing more then your opponent doesn't cause you to win. In general, winning causes you to rush for more then your opponents.

I sincerely apologize for bringing this to your attention. From now on, you will officially be "that guy", whenever someone claims tells you that their team needs to get their running game going. But, hey, don't blame me. I tried to warn you.

Now if you'll excuse me, I've got a date with my couch, a Cubs game and a six pack of Heineken. Because, you know, never hurts to double check...